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THE RISE AND FALL OF NATIONS

FORCES OF CHANGE IN THE POST-CRISIS WORLD

Evenhanded, measured, sage advice on the global economy.

This efficient, positive guide for the practical observer and investor shows how to choose healthy emerging markets.

After the 2008 global financial crisis, impermanence is the watchword, writes Sharma (Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles, 2012), the head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Since no one seemed to have been able to predict the 2008 meltdown, and the most-hyped emerging nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have now fallen into being considered a “bloody ridiculous investment concept,” the author urges the use of skepticism, short-term planning (five or six years), and reliable data in trying to grasp forces of change. His “rules,” developed over “25 years on the road” with a team of researchers, encompass the factors of growth in some “fifty-six postwar emerging economies that managed to sustain a growth rate of 6 percent for at least a decade.” In each chapter, rather than moving country by country, Sharma tackles one of these factors. He looks at demographic data in order to get a sense of the makeup of the available workforce (falling birthrates are prompting countries to add incentives for having babies, such as in Singapore, France, and Chile, along with increasing the retirement age and attracting migrants), and he considers whether a new political leader will be able to enact reforms (e.g., Brazil’s Lula da Silva), investigates areas of income inequality (e.g., billionaires in India), and examines state spending and how to make the most of a country’s “geographic sweet spot” (e.g., Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam). Sharma discusses investment in factories, the measurement of food prices, and the importance of ignoring the “hype watch” and of keeping an eye on the locals to determine when a country is in crisis or recovery. The final chapter is a rather bold assertion of which countries might be considered “the good, the average, and the ugly.”

Evenhanded, measured, sage advice on the global economy.

Pub Date: June 7, 2016

ISBN: 978-0-393-24889-0

Page Count: 440

Publisher: Norton

Review Posted Online: April 12, 2016

Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 2016

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WHEN BREATH BECOMES AIR

A moving meditation on mortality by a gifted writer whose dual perspectives of physician and patient provide a singular...

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A neurosurgeon with a passion for literature tragically finds his perfect subject after his diagnosis of terminal lung cancer.

Writing isn’t brain surgery, but it’s rare when someone adept at the latter is also so accomplished at the former. Searching for meaning and purpose in his life, Kalanithi pursued a doctorate in literature and had felt certain that he wouldn’t enter the field of medicine, in which his father and other members of his family excelled. “But I couldn’t let go of the question,” he writes, after realizing that his goals “didn’t quite fit in an English department.” “Where did biology, morality, literature and philosophy intersect?” So he decided to set aside his doctoral dissertation and belatedly prepare for medical school, which “would allow me a chance to find answers that are not in books, to find a different sort of sublime, to forge relationships with the suffering, and to keep following the question of what makes human life meaningful, even in the face of death and decay.” The author’s empathy undoubtedly made him an exceptional doctor, and the precision of his prose—as well as the moral purpose underscoring it—suggests that he could have written a good book on any subject he chose. Part of what makes this book so essential is the fact that it was written under a death sentence following the diagnosis that upended his life, just as he was preparing to end his residency and attract offers at the top of his profession. Kalanithi learned he might have 10 years to live or perhaps five. Should he return to neurosurgery (he could and did), or should he write (he also did)? Should he and his wife have a baby? They did, eight months before he died, which was less than two years after the original diagnosis. “The fact of death is unsettling,” he understates. “Yet there is no other way to live.”

A moving meditation on mortality by a gifted writer whose dual perspectives of physician and patient provide a singular clarity.

Pub Date: Jan. 19, 2016

ISBN: 978-0-8129-8840-6

Page Count: 248

Publisher: Random House

Review Posted Online: Sept. 29, 2015

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Oct. 15, 2015

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GOOD ECONOMICS FOR HARD TIMES

Occasionally wonky but overall a good case for how the dismal science can make the world less—well, dismal.

“Quality of life means more than just consumption”: Two MIT economists urge that a smarter, more politically aware economics be brought to bear on social issues.

It’s no secret, write Banerjee and Duflo (co-authors: Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way To Fight Global Poverty, 2011), that “we seem to have fallen on hard times.” Immigration, trade, inequality, and taxation problems present themselves daily, and they seem to be intractable. Economics can be put to use in figuring out these big-issue questions. Data can be adduced, for example, to answer the question of whether immigration tends to suppress wages. The answer: “There is no evidence low-skilled migration to rich countries drives wage and employment down for the natives.” In fact, it opens up opportunities for those natives by freeing them to look for better work. The problem becomes thornier when it comes to the matter of free trade; as the authors observe, “left-behind people live in left-behind places,” which explains why regional poverty descended on Appalachia when so many manufacturing jobs left for China in the age of globalism, leaving behind not just left-behind people but also people ripe for exploitation by nationalist politicians. The authors add, interestingly, that the same thing occurred in parts of Germany, Spain, and Norway that fell victim to the “China shock.” In what they call a “slightly technical aside,” they build a case for addressing trade issues not with trade wars but with consumption taxes: “It makes no sense to ask agricultural workers to lose their jobs just so steelworkers can keep theirs, which is what tariffs accomplish.” Policymakers might want to consider such counsel, especially when it is coupled with the observation that free trade benefits workers in poor countries but punishes workers in rich ones.

Occasionally wonky but overall a good case for how the dismal science can make the world less—well, dismal.

Pub Date: Nov. 12, 2019

ISBN: 978-1-61039-950-0

Page Count: 432

Publisher: PublicAffairs

Review Posted Online: Aug. 28, 2019

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2019

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