ON THE MOVE

As climate change begins to bite, long-predicted upheavals are underway.

Journalist Lustgarten, author of Run to Failure and China’s Great Train, begins with the usual bad news. Today, less than 1% of the planet is too hot to support civilization. By 2070, it will be 20%. Where will those people go? Tolerable living conditions in the U.S. “will jump dramatically northward,” with states along the Canadian border suffering the least damage. Sea levels have risen more than nine inches since 1960—and two feet in Louisiana, the worse-affected state, drowning a coastal area bigger than Delaware. Rapid global heating produces hot but also extremely unpredictable weather, and hurricanes, forest fires, and droughts have become routine. Traveling the nation, Lustgarten interviews experts and victims to paint a grim but fact-based picture. Responding to catastrophic losses, insurers who have not gone bankrupt have raised premiums or stopped issuing policies in certain areas. Responding to pleas from property owners, elected officials have exacerbated the problem by introducing subsidized taxpayer-financed insurance. Lustgarten is not the first to point out that this “sends the wrong message,” encouraging Americans to remain in dangerous areas. Census data show that Americans continue to move toward heat, coastlines, and drought. These trends have burdened state budgets, especially in places like Florida; since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, five million people have moved to coastal counties, assured of cheap insurance. When Ron DeSantis decided to stem the money hemorrhage, angry homeowners quickly changed his mind. Lustgarten finishes with the traditional gloom (“We’ve failed for a generation already”) but adds that aggressive action can still mitigate the damage and even revive neglected regions such as the Rust Belt. This means building sea walls but also investing in housing, infrastructure, and social programs to accommodate those already on the move.

Global warming on the home front.