POLITICAL RUMORS

A quantitative assessment of political rumors in the U.S. and proposals to manage them.

Berinsky, founding director of the MIT Political Experiments Research Lab, delves into the transmission of and widespread belief in political claims that are both unsupported and tinged with “a conspiratorial edge.” QAnon conspiracies, Trump’s mantra of a stolen presidential election, and the claim that Obama’s health policy includes “death panels” are only the most pernicious. For centuries, political discourse has entailed bending, breaking, and suppressing the truth in order to shape perceptions and attract constituents. Indeed, political rumors are “nothing new in the American experience.” Drawing on public opinion surveys, Berinsky finds that rumors are “the toxic marriage of political beliefs and conspiratorial orientation.” They thrive on repetition and ripple outward from creators to believers to the uncertain and to disbelievers. Though both Republicans and Democrats trade in rumors, “more rumors are in circulation on the right than there are on the left,” and Republicans are less assertive in their denials. Although people who are more politically engaged and informed are “more likely to reject rumors of all partisan stripes,” the effects of fact-checking, a widely adopted prescription, are limited and temporary. “Lies, false narratives, and ‘alternative facts’ can...taint faith in the political system,” Berinsky warns, and he proposes a medley of responses, of mixed quality. At the top of his list is mobilizing “the power of unlikely sources”—i.e., individuals who might be damaged by speaking against the rumor. He also suggests regulating the information ecosystem (particularly online media), pressuring political elites who fail to denounce rumors, and inoculating the public through education in critical thinking skills. His conclusion: “It may be easier to make a rumor stronger than it is to make [it] go away.”

A carefully considered, largely pessimistic dive into the academic research on toxic political misinformation.