THE TRIANGLE OF POWER

Finland’s president forecasts a reordering of the world’s power relations.

“Power is changing hands—between the US and China, and into the hands of mid-size nations,” writes Stubb, a political scientist by training. The U.S. may diminish through Trumpian isolationism, though it will remain a strong military power; China’s continuing emergence as a superpower may be hampered by economic stagnation. Meanwhile, Stubb contends, the Global South, with nations such as India and Brazil in the forefront, waits and watches—and increasingly demands a place at the diplomatic table. One index of the Global South’s stance, by Stubb’s account, is its reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, most of its constituent countries not hastening to take sides: “The reason was not indifference but dissociation—a sentiment that this is ‘your war, not ours.’” The Global South’s and Global East’s economic growth may eclipse that of the Global West, thanks to such things as protectionism and because the rest of the world is “tired of Western lectures on human rights and of global geopolitical considerations taking precedence over their national concerns.” Insisting, provocatively, that capitalism is failing in providing the fundamental value of economic growth, namely “quality of life,” Stubb counsels a return to free trade and advocates both healthy competition and cooperation, particularly as against the confrontational stances of the U.S. and China. Moreover, he prescribes means to foster a greater distribution of political power. One of his tenets is that the U.N. be modified so that its Security Council contains five more permanent members from Latin America, Africa, and Asia, a proposal that the current members roundly dislike. Stubb responds, smartly, “Unsurprisingly, they did not want to dilute their dominant position. Yet unless they accept the need to rebalance power, they will forfeit the chance to choose.”

A brief but weighty treatise of much interest to geopolitics watchers.