INVESTING FOR PROFIT IN THE EIGHTIES: The Business Cycle System

As he propounded in the more primer-like Understanding the Economy (1976), Wall Street Journal columnist Malabre believes that investment success depends largely on paying attention to the business cycle. Here, he details and documents his recommendations. Investors should especially watch three components of the Commerce Department's composite index of twelve leading indicators (published monthly in Business Conditions Digest and widely reported by the media): new building permits; stock market performance, as measured by the S&P 500; and the money supply, adjusted for inflation. Warning that other factors must also be assessed (as well as the ratio of coincident to lagging indicators), Malabre relates the historic market behavior of 29 industry groups to the business cycle's ups and downs. Housing issues, for instance, tend to rise sooner than the market as a whole before an economic recovery; by the same token, they are apt to decline well before a slump becomes apparent. (There can, of course, be identification problems: is GE a consumer or capital goods supplier?) With limitations: a reasoned alternative to the flashy, here-and-gone schemes.