CONFUSED BY THE ODDS

A nonfiction book examines the problems with probability.

If debates about vaccines and masks during the Covid-19 pandemic revealed anything, it was that people of all ideological persuasions could find statistics to “prove” their points. The infamous manipulation of statistics has long been a cliché, yet even the most learned have been known to make fundamental logical and mathematical errors when discussing probability. As Lockwood convincingly demonstrates in this book, experts in a variety of fields have sometimes been “confused by the odds.” Examples abound in the fraught terrain of probabilities, as seen in the criminal justice system with DNA evidence, the expected financial returns compiled by investment bankers, and 21st-century military strategies where supposedly decisive victories proved elusive. Emphasizing the role of humans in shaping and interpreting statistics, the author suggests that even the most seemingly neutral studies should pay a closer attention to people’s intrusions and prejudices. Intellectual tests that measure IQ, for instance, do not account for cultural biases embedded in question banks. Surveying the history of probability from its origins in Renaissance Italy through its polarization during the Covid-19 pandemic, this book eschews complex mathematical formulas for an approach that centers on “real-world problems.” Though the application of probability is the volume’s focus, its theoretical underpinnings stress the value of causal diagrams and Bayes’ theorem, which has been extremely effective in filtering unwanted emails. A former Wall Street senior executive and business lecturer at Stanford University, Lockwood is the author of two previous works that focused on the practical applicability of social and mathematical theories. This work follows in that tradition, carefully balancing an approachable writing style geared toward nonmathematicians with a solid research foundation that includes almost 40 pages of endnotes and bibliographic references. And while it may not contain any groundbreaking scholarship given the ubiquitous use (and misuse) of probability in today’s society, this is an important reminder about the value and pitfalls of applying it to real-world scenarios.

An effective primer on probability.