THE SECOND GREAT CRASH by Frances & Hamish McRae Cairncross


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Will it happen again?""--A bird's-eye gloss of that favorite if frightening topic of conversation in banks, boardrooms and world capitals. Cairncross and McRae, economic reporters for the British Manchester Guardian, concede that there are other factors at work--such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system--but they know and you know that the real imbalance in the equation is' that these days Oil buys more than Money. Their analysis is especially concerned with the post-1970 troubles of the industrialized nations--their overwhelming deficits and fiscal fumblings, the crisis of confidence in stock markets, the first of the bank failures--as the oil. producing nations continue to stockpile the billions in currency that strapped Europeans (e.g., Italy, Britain, France) so desperately need. The authors speculate that the turning point to disaster might be the U.S. 1976 elections if the incumbents attempt to return to a full-employment policy--thereby precipitating another inflationary boom. Or that if the oil-producers refuse to sell, the Second Crash may set off the Third World War. In any case, breakdown is ""certain."" The name of the game is Gloom. Any number can--and will--lose. (An appendix covers the politics of food in the Third World.)

Pub Date: May 6th, 1975
Publisher: Prentice-Hall