WE SHALL OUTLAST THEM

A skilled Russia hand looks at the many fronts on which Russia is battling the West.

It’s been a trope ever since the Kitchen Debate of 1959: Just give them enough time, and the Russians will wear down the West and rule the world. Notte, a longtime student of the Soviet Union and its successor states, opens with a speech in which Vladimir Putin, after justifying the invasion of Ukraine, pledged to abandon the last nuclear treaty with the U.S.—“a vestige of a bygone era of cooperation,” in Notte’s words. Efforts to “reset” relations in Barack Obama’s era fell apart, President Trump has vacillated between fawning and bluster, and Joe Biden too often blinked as Russia evaded sanctions. Still, after starting that war on what Notte calls a “whim” and having squandered wealth and countless soldiers, Putin’s long game appears to be working out on other fronts. One is projecting Russia’s power into Africa, made all the easier by Trump’s dismantling of USAID and disinterest in world affairs. Another has been to build alliances with Asian powers, notably Iran, China, and North Korea, the last of which has even committed troops to Ukrainian battlefields. By Notte’s account, Russia has skirted around sanctions on its oil industry by floating a “shadow fleet” of ships that fly other colors, taking oil to places like Iran, North Korea, and China, but also India and farther afield. Meanwhile, through a “Eurasian roundabout,” critical technology slips into Russia thanks to friendly intermediaries. In the end, though, Notte foresees the possibility that states like Kazakhstan will slip away from Russia, building their own regional alliances, even as Russia is increasingly beholden to China, the real winner. Yet, she adds, “Russia will remain a dangerous, highly militarized nation, stewing in revanchism toward Europe”—and none too friendly to the U.S. at that.

A closely observed work of geopolitical reportage and analysis that goes a long way in explaining recent world events.