THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION

An ambitious, eccentric look at the wreckage of the American economy in a time of pandemic.

In his latest book, investment guru Rickards has four goals: describe the origins of Covid-19, suggesting more than once that it’s the product of a Chinese lab; contest the wisdom of the pandemic-triggered lockdown of America; show that the economy is crashing and won’t recover for decades; and give investment advice that includes one of his favorite strategies, stocking up on gold. “If the United States decides to raise the price of gold, you win,” he writes. “If the United States does not raise the price of gold, it will go up anyway because of debt and lost confidence in the dollar. Again, you win.” With the possible exception of gold, about which no two financial counselors agree in every particular, his advice seems sound enough, especially when it comes to diversifying a portfolio across asset classes—and he advocates holding real things like cash and property along with intangibles. The first has more than a whiff of conspiracy theory to it, as if viruses, even novel ones, have to be engineered and don’t just evolve. His account of the collapse of the economy owing to lockdown and fear would be more convincing if it allowed for the differential responses state by state, given that it wasn’t a single fiat that plunged us into a financial spiral. The sometimes fatalistic pronouncements (“Once critical systems break down, civilized behavior lasts three days. After that, the law of the jungle prevails”) won’t improve the reader’s mood, but there are some good takeaways amid the swirl and mayhem, as when Rickards vigorously rejects the theory of efficient markets (“they freeze up at the first sign of trouble”) and advises investors to study history, which may not be quantifiable but offers actionable patterns all the same.

A blend of alarmism, intrigue, and solid financial advice. Fans of Rickards will know just what to expect.