A provocative consideration for the thoughtful investor.
A convention-busting reappraisal of global macroeconomics.
Macroeconomics, the study of economic systems involving large regions, is a forbidding field, generally dominated by academically esoteric analysis that’s often inaccessible to lay readers. On the other hand, popular treatments of the subject liberally dispense investment strategy without adequately explaining complex financial contexts. Debut author Gonzalez situates his own work in the space between those two options, furnishing a study that’s intellectually rigorous but ultimately practical. He begins with what he calls an “investing epistemology,” explaining the ways that macroeconomics falls short of being a full-fledged science. The unscientific character of the field, however, doesn’t foreclose the possibility of rational prediction, but according to the author, it requires a panoramic understanding of the history of macro markets. The book’s first section is largely structured around such history, providing an astute investigation of the 1944 United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, the 1985 Plaza Accord, the conclusion of the Cold War, the American elections of 1994, and a host of other significant events. The book’s second part focuses on other topics, although historical analysis still plays a major, even principal, role. Part of what makes macroeconomics such a challenging discipline is the vast array of pertinent factors that underlie change, including shifting political landscapes, climate change, institutional structures, and global disruptions, such as war. (In fact, one of the highlights of the book is its examination of the macroeconomic repercussions of several modern conflicts.) Although he’s heavily influenced by George Soros, Gonzalez’s perspective is his own, and he intrepidly opposes prevailing wisdom when evidence leads him to new conclusions. For example, he says that commodities and equities aren’t always given a boost by military conflict, and that growth, interest rates, and inflation sometimes move along contradictory currents. Sometimes, the author delivers his iconoclasm with real verve: “However, in financial macro the laws of supply and demand do not hold. Pardon me, you might say. Yes, they do not hold.” This is a well-researched study, brimming with helpfully illustrative graphs. Although the author doesn’t appear to be very interested in providing immediately actionable investment advice, his book is still a highly valuable guide.
A provocative consideration for the thoughtful investor.Pub Date: July 7, 2016
ISBN: 978-1-5175-7619-6
Page Count: 308
Publisher: CreateSpace
Review Posted Online: July 28, 2016
Review Program: Kirkus Indie
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
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A readable, persuasive argument that our ways of doing business will have to change if we are to prosper—or even survive.
A well-constructed critique of an economic system that, by the author’s account, is a driver of the world’s destruction.
Harvard Business School professor Henderson vigorously questions the bromide that “management’s only duty is to maximize shareholder value,” a notion advanced by Milton Friedman and accepted uncritically in business schools ever since. By that logic, writes the author, there is no reason why corporations should not fish out the oceans, raise drug prices, militate against public education (since it costs tax money), and otherwise behave ruinously and anti-socially. Many do, even though an alternative theory of business organization argues that corporations and society should enjoy a symbiotic relationship of mutual benefit, which includes corporate investment in what economists call public goods. Given that the history of humankind is “the story of our increasing ability to cooperate at larger and larger scales,” one would hope that in the face of environmental degradation and other threats, we might adopt the symbiotic model rather than the winner-take-all one. Problems abound, of course, including that of the “free rider,” the corporation that takes the benefits from collaborative agreements but does none of the work. Henderson examines case studies such as a large food company that emphasized environmentally responsible production and in turn built “purpose-led, sustainable living brands” and otherwise led the way in increasing shareholder value by reducing risk while building demand. The author argues that the “short-termism” that dominates corporate thinking needs to be adjusted to a longer view even though the larger problem might be better characterized as “failure of information.” Henderson closes with a set of prescriptions for bringing a more equitable economics to the personal level, one that, among other things, asks us to step outside routine—eat less meat, drive less—and become active in forcing corporations (and politicians) to be better citizens.
A readable, persuasive argument that our ways of doing business will have to change if we are to prosper—or even survive.Pub Date: May 1, 2020
ISBN: 978-1-5417-3015-1
Page Count: 336
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: Feb. 16, 2020
Kirkus Reviews Issue: March 15, 2020
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