Solid advice for thoughtful investors.
Investment guru Jubak (The Jubak Picks: 50 Stocks that Will Rebuild Your Wealth & Safeguard Your Future, 2008, etc.) analyzes the growing volatility of both the financial markets and everyday life (jobs, housing, an aging population, climate change, etc.) and offers strategies for profiting in a topsy-turvy world.
A former editor at Worth, the author now edits JubakPicks.com, where his portfolio has returned 445 percent since 1997. In this informative, often entertaining book, he details the many ways in which frequent zigzags since 2000 in the financial markets—especially abrupt changes of acceleration and direction—have combined with events in the housing, job, and retirements markets to increase our expectations about the degree of volatility in everyday life. Heightened volatility is now “embedded” in the stock market, writes Jubak. Furthermore, our aging world brings rising medical costs and requires more pension payments. China alone—“the world’s fastest-aging society,” with an inadequate pension system and underfunded health care—poses a global volatility risk. Drawing on his experiences of the last 20 years in the financial market, the research of behavioral economists and neuroscientists, and projections for the immediate future, Jubak describes ways to better understand the scope and direction of rapid changes in key areas and ways to “limit the downside damage and increase the upside potential from this volatility in our portfolios and our lives.” He stresses that by determining the distribution of volatility in a given market, it is possible to find a “haven of lower volatility.” Besides understanding the underlying forces at work, the author urges readers to resist the impulse to engage in the flight-or-fight response in reacting to dizzying changes. Whether discussing the effects of food and water shortages or the boom-and-bust real estate markets in such diverse enclaves as hipster Williamsburg (Brooklyn) and Boomer Sarasota (Florida), Jubak brightly illuminates the trends shaping our present era.
Solid advice for thoughtful investors.Pub Date: Jan. 26, 2016
ISBN: 978-1-61039-480-2
Page Count: 384
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: Nov. 3, 2015
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Nov. 15, 2015
BOOK REVIEW
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
BOOK REVIEW
IN THE NEWS
A readable, persuasive argument that our ways of doing business will have to change if we are to prosper—or even survive.
A well-constructed critique of an economic system that, by the author’s account, is a driver of the world’s destruction.
Harvard Business School professor Henderson vigorously questions the bromide that “management’s only duty is to maximize shareholder value,” a notion advanced by Milton Friedman and accepted uncritically in business schools ever since. By that logic, writes the author, there is no reason why corporations should not fish out the oceans, raise drug prices, militate against public education (since it costs tax money), and otherwise behave ruinously and anti-socially. Many do, even though an alternative theory of business organization argues that corporations and society should enjoy a symbiotic relationship of mutual benefit, which includes corporate investment in what economists call public goods. Given that the history of humankind is “the story of our increasing ability to cooperate at larger and larger scales,” one would hope that in the face of environmental degradation and other threats, we might adopt the symbiotic model rather than the winner-take-all one. Problems abound, of course, including that of the “free rider,” the corporation that takes the benefits from collaborative agreements but does none of the work. Henderson examines case studies such as a large food company that emphasized environmentally responsible production and in turn built “purpose-led, sustainable living brands” and otherwise led the way in increasing shareholder value by reducing risk while building demand. The author argues that the “short-termism” that dominates corporate thinking needs to be adjusted to a longer view even though the larger problem might be better characterized as “failure of information.” Henderson closes with a set of prescriptions for bringing a more equitable economics to the personal level, one that, among other things, asks us to step outside routine—eat less meat, drive less—and become active in forcing corporations (and politicians) to be better citizens.
A readable, persuasive argument that our ways of doing business will have to change if we are to prosper—or even survive.Pub Date: May 1, 2020
ISBN: 978-1-5417-3015-1
Page Count: 336
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: Feb. 16, 2020
Kirkus Reviews Issue: March 15, 2020
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