THE WARNING: The Coming Great Crash by Joseph Granville

THE WARNING: The Coming Great Crash

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Throughout his checkered career as a technical analyst of the stock market, Granville has assiduously courted controversy. On the heels of an engaging autobiography (The Book of Granville, a January release), he does so again in a tedious, portentous exercise that predicts apocalypse now--or sometime soon--for equity prices. Often in error but seldom in doubt as a seer, the author puts little stock in balance sheets, income statements, monetary policy, interest rates, or other so-called fundamentals. Instead, he prefers to let the market tell its own story in terms of supply/demand factors. And a dreadful story it is just now, at least in his book. Rehashing material from his advisory service (for a 23-month span through January of 1985) and pointing to presumptive parallels (183 in all) between this period and 1929, he predicts an imminent crash. Precisely when is not specified, and, beyond offering a cryptic caution that ""the higher the diving board, the bigger the splash,"" he never quite confides the extent of investors' downside risk. Equally troublesome is his penchant for citing historical analogies that might strike the uninitiated as technical apostasy--a strong dollar, debt problems (foreign as well as domestic), and tax cuts, among others. Illogic apart, Granville pays scant attention to preferred socio-economic changes that have occurred in the interim, including institutional domination of the securities marketplace and ongoing deregulation of financial services. At critical points, he also confuses the issue with nonesuch bafflegab, e.g., ""While the Cumulative Climax Indicator readings had been at a triple top, that meant that any failure to come down from that level effected a triple top upside break-out, exactly what was now occuring."" Wall Street could well be facing Armageddon, but few save true believers will care to get the news from this shrill, overlong, and idiosyncratic source.

Pub Date: Sept. 1st, 1985
Publisher: Freundlich--dist. by Scribners