An alternative approach to investment management, explained in detail.
A finance professional refines and promotes his strategy for maximizing investment gains by understanding stock market trends through a long-term view.
In this new edition of his book originally published in 2003, portfolio manager Tuttle presents the latest version of his stock-picking strategy. The strategy demands an understanding of the business cycle over years and decades, rather than the shorter horizons most analysts rely on, and sees smaller cyclical ups and downs as components of larger, secular trends. The theory accounts for nine secular phases from 1906 to the present, with detailed looks at the ups and downs of each trend. Tuttle challenges the accepted theories of asset allocation, including the efficient markets theory and the capital asset pricing model. Fusion analysis, including a ratio called Tobin Q, drives Tuttle’s theory, which argues that both risk and return are cyclical instead of linear and returns can be maximized by understanding the progression of the cycle. Tuttle acknowledges that his theory is outside mainstream investment thought, but he notes that it has gained adherents: It is now “considered thought-leading radical work in the financial arena [and] is used by countless management firms as their basis behind risk correlation in relation to market cycle comprehension.” Dozens of color charts throughout the book help illustrate aspects of the theory and of the long-term trends Tuttle describes. Elsewhere, the book is hampered by occasional awkward sentences: “It seems as if the definition placates the defining of a person’s or firm’s time objective”; “Considering in the year 2000 the U.S. poverty population accounted for 15% and children under seventeen accounted for more than 20%, this equates to only 15% of the working class not invested in the stock market.” In the end, though, the theory isn’t an approach to choosing individual stocks to buy or sell but rather a new way of looking at the market and the economy as a whole.
An alternative approach to investment management, explained in detail.Pub Date: Jan. 8, 2014
ISBN: 978-1492821960
Page Count: 196
Publisher: CreateSpace
Review Posted Online: Feb. 18, 2014
Review Program: Kirkus Indie
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
BOOK REVIEW
IN THE NEWS
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.
A helpful guide to working effectively with people from other cultures.
“The sad truth is that the vast majority of managers who conduct business internationally have little understanding about how culture is impacting their work,” writes Meyer, a professor at INSEAD, an international business school. Yet they face a wider array of work styles than ever before in dealing with clients, suppliers and colleagues from around the world. When is it best to speak or stay quiet? What is the role of the leader in the room? When working with foreign business people, failing to take cultural differences into account can lead to frustration, misunderstanding or worse. Based on research and her experiences teaching cross-cultural behaviors to executive students, the author examines a handful of key areas. Among others, they include communicating (Anglo-Saxons are explicit; Asians communicate implicitly, requiring listeners to read between the lines), developing a sense of trust (Brazilians do it over long lunches), and decision-making (Germans rely on consensus, Americans on one decider). In each area, the author provides a “culture map scale” that positions behaviors in more than 20 countries along a continuum, allowing readers to anticipate the preferences of individuals from a particular country: Do they like direct or indirect negative feedback? Are they rigid or flexible regarding deadlines? Do they favor verbal or written commitments? And so on. Meyer discusses managers who have faced perplexing situations, such as knowledgeable team members who fail to speak up in meetings or Indians who offer a puzzling half-shake, half-nod of the head. Cultural differences—not personality quirks—are the motivating factors behind many behavioral styles. Depending on our cultures, we understand the world in a particular way, find certain arguments persuasive or lacking merit, and consider some ways of making decisions or measuring time natural and others quite strange.
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.Pub Date: May 27, 2014
ISBN: 978-1-61039-250-1
Page Count: 288
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: April 15, 2014
Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 2014
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