An alternative approach to investment management, explained in detail.

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100-Year Market Theory

AN EVOLUTIONARY PERSPECTIVE OF INVESTMENT-RISK

A finance professional refines and promotes his strategy for maximizing investment gains by understanding stock market trends through a long-term view.

In this new edition of his book originally published in 2003, portfolio manager Tuttle presents the latest version of his stock-picking strategy. The strategy demands an understanding of the business cycle over years and decades, rather than the shorter horizons most analysts rely on, and sees smaller cyclical ups and downs as components of larger, secular trends. The theory accounts for nine secular phases from 1906 to the present, with detailed looks at the ups and downs of each trend. Tuttle challenges the accepted theories of asset allocation, including the efficient markets theory and the capital asset pricing model. Fusion analysis, including a ratio called Tobin Q, drives Tuttle’s theory, which argues that both risk and return are cyclical instead of linear and returns can be maximized by understanding the progression of the cycle. Tuttle acknowledges that his theory is outside mainstream investment thought, but he notes that it has gained adherents: It is now “considered thought-leading radical work in the financial arena [and] is used by countless management firms as their basis behind risk correlation in relation to market cycle comprehension.” Dozens of color charts throughout the book help illustrate aspects of the theory and of the long-term trends Tuttle describes. Elsewhere, the book is hampered by occasional awkward sentences: “It seems as if the definition placates the defining of a person’s or firm’s time objective”; “Considering in the year 2000 the U.S. poverty population accounted for 15% and children under seventeen accounted for more than 20%, this equates to only 15% of the working class not invested in the stock market.” In the end, though, the theory isn’t an approach to choosing individual stocks to buy or sell but rather a new way of looking at the market and the economy as a whole.

An alternative approach to investment management, explained in detail.

Pub Date: Jan. 8, 2014

ISBN: 978-1492821960

Page Count: 196

Publisher: CreateSpace

Review Posted Online: Feb. 18, 2014

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Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...

THINKING, FAST AND SLOW

A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.

The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.

Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.

Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011

ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1

Page Count: 512

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Review Posted Online: Sept. 4, 2011

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011

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Essential reading for citizens of the here and now. Other economists should marvel at how that plain language can be put to...

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CAPITAL IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

A French academic serves up a long, rigorous critique, dense with historical data, of American-style predatory capitalism—and offers remedies that Karl Marx might applaud.

Economist Piketty considers capital, in the monetary sense, from the vantage of what he considers the capital of the world, namely Paris; at times, his discussions of how capital works, and especially public capital, befit Locke-ian France and not Hobbesian America, a source of some controversy in the wide discussion surrounding his book. At heart, though, his argument turns on well-founded economic principles, notably r > g, meaning that the “rate of return on capital significantly exceeds the growth rate of the economy,” in Piketty’s gloss. It logically follows that when such conditions prevail, then wealth will accumulate in a few hands faster than it can be broadly distributed. By the author’s reckoning, the United States is one of the leading nations in the “high inequality” camp, though it was not always so. In the colonial era, Piketty likens the inequality quotient in New England to be about that of Scandinavia today, with few abject poor and few mega-rich. The difference is that the rich now—who are mostly the “supermanagers” of business rather than the “superstars” of sports and entertainment—have surrounded themselves with political shields that keep them safe from the specter of paying more in taxes and adding to the fund of public wealth. The author’s data is unassailable. His policy recommendations are considerably more controversial, including his call for a global tax on wealth. From start to finish, the discussion is written in plainspoken prose that, though punctuated by formulas, also draws on a wide range of cultural references.

Essential reading for citizens of the here and now. Other economists should marvel at how that plain language can be put to work explaining the most complex of ideas, foremost among them the fact that economic inequality is at an all-time high—and is only bound to grow worse.

Pub Date: March 10, 2014

ISBN: 978-0-674-43000-6

Page Count: 640

Publisher: Belknap/Harvard Univ.

Review Posted Online: April 30, 2014

Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 15, 2014

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