A TIME TO BE RICH: Winning on Wall Street in the New Economy

Hunt, chief economist for a government securities dealer owned in part by Marine Midland Bank, does not promise quick killings in the market. Nor does he posit a fundamentally new economy. The author does, though, offer sound, accessible counsel on using the domestic business cycle as a guide to investing--via no-load mutual funds. In detailing and documenting the five major phases of a typical business cycle, from revival through contraction, Hunt focuses on critical changes that can create profitable investment opportunities. Thus, in addition to the big-picture GNP, his approach takes into account less familiar statistical series, including initial unemployment claims and average manufacturing workweek. The author also makes judgment calls on the relative reliability of widely followed indicators, for example, characterizing the producer price index and housing starts as more trustworthy than, say, retail sales or durable goods orders--both of which are subject to substantive revisions. Urging conservative accounts to monitor trends rather than interim swings, Hunt assesses the investment implications of developments at various points in the business cycle. To illustrate, he notes that a turnaround in capital spending invariably portends the onset of the latter stages of an economic expansion--a signal for cautious investors to abandon equity and debt commitments in favor of a money market fund. Covered as well as the Federal Reserve's frequently inscrutable efforts to control the money supply, fiscal policy, inflation's impact under varying circumstances, the effect of presidential elections, and a wealth of other factors that can influence investment results. The notion of investing with or against the economy is by no means novel. Nonetheless, Hunt delivers a lucid, durable, and up-to-date briefing on the possibilities of the business-cycle system that's a blue-chip alternative to the investment genre's flashier entries.