THE COMING STORM

Bleak analysis of current geopolitics, a powder keg awaiting its spark.

Yale historian Westad takes World War I as both his starting point and point of reference, likening the situation of the Great Powers a century ago to the “multipolar world” of today. One dangerous development, in his view, is the relative diminishment of the U.S. on the world stage, not only because of the recent tendency toward isolationism but also because of the nation’s having “squandered its global position through unnecessary wars, uncertain strategic priorities, and domestic social and economic decline.” In this scenario, Russia is a weakened but still powerful opponent, though far less so than China, which benefited from a political context in which the U.S. cast it as a “pseudo ally” in a Cold War that, in turn, cast the Soviet Union as the chief adversary. China has now emerged as a state that is clearly determined to be the dominant power in its region, which includes Pacific Russia and the island nations to its east, a course that puts it into direct conflict with the aims of the U.S. Meanwhile, Westad writes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also driven by Vladimir Putin’s intent on regaining its power over former Soviet vassal states, among them Georgia and Ukraine, which “would not willingly subordinate themselves to Putin’s view of Russian preeminence in what he regards as his region.” That other nations, such as India and Brazil, seek to become regionally dominant creates further tensions. Rather than replay the fortunes of Wilhelmine Germany, Westad counsels resolving at least some of the conflicts that are now afflicting the world, suggesting that admitting Ukraine into the EU should be a priority—but, at the same time, rethinking a security organization that might somehow include Russia.

An intriguing, if discomfiting, view of world politics in a tumultuous time.