PUTIN'S WAR ON UKRAINE

An assessment of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a global turning point.

The progress of the war on the ground is well known, but Ramani, a professor of politics and international relations at Oxford, looks behind the headlines to determine the motivations for the invasion and the likely path forward. He is keenly aware of the danger of believing something simply because you want to believe it; for this reason, he is willing to assemble and consider a wide range of research sources and opinions. He eventually concludes that the invasion was part of a long-term plan to impose Putin-esque authoritarianism in the post-Soviet space and to cement Russia’s position as a world power. However, Putin and his advisers, mostly yes men, overestimated the strength of the Russian military and underestimated the willingness of the West to support Ukraine. The objective of regime change in Ukraine fell apart in the face of stiff, innovative resistance, and the mission was scaled back to holding the eastern provinces. Ramani threads his way through the morass of propaganda, noting that the war has actually been popular with much of the Russian public. Now, both sides appear to be digging in for the long haul, a situation that probably favors Ukraine. “Nearly one year after Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine,” writes the author, “it is apparent that Russia cannot win and cannot afford to lose the war.” At the same time, Russia is reinforcing its relationships with non-Western countries—mainly India and China but also nations in Africa and South America. Whether this represents a new alignment is not yet clear, but Ramani is convincing in his view that the war marks a seismic shift in the geopolitical landscape.

Clear-minded and authoritative, this book is a thorough analysis of how Putin’s gambit fits into the big picture.