PSYCHOTRENDS

An optimistic look into the future, predicting psychological and social trends that will shape Americans in the next century. The crystal ball in this case is thousands of scientific studies and articles from the popular press, reduced to six categories of human experience: violence, relationships between the sexes, family, altruism, respect for life, and satisfaction. Psychiatrist Frazier (former director of the National Institute of Mental Health) gives each a chapter, going far out on some limbs to forecast trends and subtrends, as well as offer solutions and recommendations. The section on violence (``Fury: More Violent/Less Violent?''), for instance, predicts that, of necessity, prevention will replace retribution. Why? The high cost of incarceration. The US soon will simply not be able to afford building and maintaining the prison cells needed to house increasing numbers of criminals- -many of whom are returned to jail soon after they're released. Faulting TV and films for desensitizing adults and children to violence, Frazier cites studies and programs indicating that genuine commitment to rehabilitation and intervention can work. As for relationships: sexual detente will come about with improved communications, and sexual adventurism will proceed via astoundingly explicit Virtual Reality computer games. In a chapter on altruism (``Heart''), Frazier foresees a kinder, gentler nation with a firmer grasp on reality. A more cautious tone prevails in the discussion of life, with necessary barriers attached to genetic tinkering—what Frazier calls ``participatory evolution.'' And, in the final piece, Americans are seen as downshifting from material satisfaction to concerns with health, community, and quality of life. Frazier's recommendations tend to social programs like expanded child care, health care, and early intervention programs that have typically been resisted by American voters. Satisfyingly upbeat, but with a tendency to weight the evidence toward the author's choice of trends, much like the popular magazines he often cites.