THE DEMOGRA-FATE HYPOTHESIS

A philosophical assessment of the inevitable mortality of humankind.

According to trend analyst Thanh, humankind is, at least in one respect, no different than other species that have ever occupied the Earth—it is on a “deterministic extinction path,” and it has an “expiry date.” “No one lives eternally….[N]one of the life forms roaming the Earth when life started here some 3.7 billion years ago are still around today with the same DNA. No species has existed since the beginning of life, and none will last forever.” However, humans do distinguish themselves from the rest of “wild nature” in one crucial respect: We can actively participate in the process of our own extinction. Thanh astutely observes the self-destructive combination of increasingly low birth rates and a high median age; we are getting older as a society and living longer but choosing not to reproduce. Even if we avoid a catastrophic demise, it looks likely that humanity will expire by choice—an option made possible by technologies such as contraception, he says. The author thoughtfully reflects on the issue from various perspectives, including whether the path humanity is on is reversible—it’s not, he surmises—or if it can be considered good. Also, Thanh provocatively explores the possibility that the blessings of technology, and how it’s provided the means to material emancipation at the individual level, have doomed humanity at the societal level by separating sex from procreation, reducing the economic value of offspring, and promoting marriages based on the volatile emotion of love. In a sense, the author argues, humanity will “naturally self-terminate in pursuit of fun.”

Thanh’s approach is more about raising questions than it is about answering them, which makes the book more of a stimulating introduction to its issues than a comprehensive account of them. As the work is only slightly longer than 100 pages, it’s far too brief to combine such thoroughness with rigor, especially regarding such a rich and complex set of problems. It’s clear that the author chooses to inspire rather than complete a conversation, but this adds to the book’s philosophical depth; for instance, Thanh raises the question of whether the apathy of humankind is a function of “human nature in a modern setting” or simply an inexorable function of evolution. “Evolution might be revealing its conceptual endpoint, where the brainiest species can and does party itself out of existence, consciously and happily.” In other words, human beings would be the first species to intelligently relieve themselves of the very labors that make them cling to survival. One can quibble that the author does not take seriously enough the possibilities of a seismic and possibly religious revival as the consequence of modern discontent—a renaissance of older forms of living or even a defiant stand against technology and modernity as a whole. After all, human history, precisely because of the messy depth of human consciousness, has proved intractably resistant to prediction. Nonetheless, this is a fascinating analysis that’s unflinching and perceptive.

A gripping reflection of the murky future of Homo sapiens.