THE INVENTION OF TOMORROW

Why the ability to imagine the future is a cornerstone of human survival and development.

How do we think ahead? How do we incorporate new information into our plans? Is our foresight trustworthy? Australian academics Suddendorf, Redshaw, and Bulley pull together a wide range of scientific disciplines to explain the nature of foresight, beginning with humanity’s prehistoric past. They examine how the capacity of early humans to look ahead—from knowing when food would become available to carrying a bag of stones to ward off predators—allowed the species to thrive. As civilization developed, foresight became even more important; it was critical to forecast tides, seasonal changes, and planting and harvesting times. As the authors show, complex foresight is a uniquely human quality. A few animals, such as dolphins and apes, have some capacity to look ahead, but it is limited, and their ability to communicate with others does not match that of humans. “To live in the present, our brain must continually forecast what’s coming next….Prediction is not only involved in perception and motor coordination but also manifests in our capacity to run simulations of tomorrow and beyond,” write the authors. Research suggests that most people develop reliable foresight at around the age of 4, but our emotions often interfere with our rationality. One reason is “optimism bias,” which causes us to overestimate the chances of good outcomes. In fact, our foresight is often wrong, and the authors entertainingly recount predictions that went hilariously awry. Foresight is largely a matter of extrapolation, and despite challenges, we can take precautions, such as insuring our house, putting aside money for an unexpected crisis or, on a larger scale, building things like the Global Seed Vault. Sprinkled throughout the book are well-placed moments of deadpan humor to leaven the authoritative research.

A fascinating perspective on what it means to be human, told with a clear voice and an expansive canvas.