FUTURE WARS: The World's Most Dangerous Flashpoints by Trevor N. Dupuy

FUTURE WARS: The World's Most Dangerous Flashpoints

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Just when you thought the world might become a kinder, gentler, even safer place, a veteran military analyst appears with an arresting reminder that, notwithstanding the cold war's end, our planet still encompasses a full measure of potential hot spots. With assistance from his colleagues at HERO-TNDA (a Washington-area think tank), Dupuy (Elusive Victory, 1978, etc.) singles out ten regions where conventional conflicts, with sobering implications for the rest of the world, may occur before the turn of the century. Among other likely combat zones, he identifies the Asian subcontinent (India vs. Pakistan for a fourth time), the Balkans, Korea, the Sino-Russian border, and southern Africa. By Dupuy's reckoning, the Middle East could prove the bloodiest venue, as he looks there for a sixth Arab/Israeli clash and a third Gulf War (pitting Iran against Iraq), plus strife among Egypt, Libya, and Sudan. The author presents his all-too-plausible scenarios as history, written retrospectively. Thus, he offers background information that is accurate through late 1991, at which point his account turns conjectural. While hypothetical, Dupuy's detailed briefings (each of which includes an assessment of the casus belli, orders of battle, a review of major engagements, casualty figures, and a predicted outcome) are impressively credible. In evaluating possible hostilities, for example, Dupuy (a retired Army colonel) employs a statistical model he developed to gauge the lethality of modern weapons systems. Absorbing, informed speculation of interest to armchair generals and others. The text has helpful tabular material throughout.

Pub Date: Jan. 20th, 1993
Page count: 352pp
Publisher: Warner