A provocative consideration for the thoughtful investor.
A convention-busting reappraisal of global macroeconomics.
Macroeconomics, the study of economic systems involving large regions, is a forbidding field, generally dominated by academically esoteric analysis that’s often inaccessible to lay readers. On the other hand, popular treatments of the subject liberally dispense investment strategy without adequately explaining complex financial contexts. Debut author Gonzalez situates his own work in the space between those two options, furnishing a study that’s intellectually rigorous but ultimately practical. He begins with what he calls an “investing epistemology,” explaining the ways that macroeconomics falls short of being a full-fledged science. The unscientific character of the field, however, doesn’t foreclose the possibility of rational prediction, but according to the author, it requires a panoramic understanding of the history of macro markets. The book’s first section is largely structured around such history, providing an astute investigation of the 1944 United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, the 1985 Plaza Accord, the conclusion of the Cold War, the American elections of 1994, and a host of other significant events. The book’s second part focuses on other topics, although historical analysis still plays a major, even principal, role. Part of what makes macroeconomics such a challenging discipline is the vast array of pertinent factors that underlie change, including shifting political landscapes, climate change, institutional structures, and global disruptions, such as war. (In fact, one of the highlights of the book is its examination of the macroeconomic repercussions of several modern conflicts.) Although he’s heavily influenced by George Soros, Gonzalez’s perspective is his own, and he intrepidly opposes prevailing wisdom when evidence leads him to new conclusions. For example, he says that commodities and equities aren’t always given a boost by military conflict, and that growth, interest rates, and inflation sometimes move along contradictory currents. Sometimes, the author delivers his iconoclasm with real verve: “However, in financial macro the laws of supply and demand do not hold. Pardon me, you might say. Yes, they do not hold.” This is a well-researched study, brimming with helpfully illustrative graphs. Although the author doesn’t appear to be very interested in providing immediately actionable investment advice, his book is still a highly valuable guide.
A provocative consideration for the thoughtful investor.Pub Date: July 7, 2016
ISBN: 978-1-5175-7619-6
Page Count: 308
Publisher: CreateSpace
Review Posted Online: July 28, 2016
Review Program: Kirkus Indie
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
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These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.
A helpful guide to working effectively with people from other cultures.
“The sad truth is that the vast majority of managers who conduct business internationally have little understanding about how culture is impacting their work,” writes Meyer, a professor at INSEAD, an international business school. Yet they face a wider array of work styles than ever before in dealing with clients, suppliers and colleagues from around the world. When is it best to speak or stay quiet? What is the role of the leader in the room? When working with foreign business people, failing to take cultural differences into account can lead to frustration, misunderstanding or worse. Based on research and her experiences teaching cross-cultural behaviors to executive students, the author examines a handful of key areas. Among others, they include communicating (Anglo-Saxons are explicit; Asians communicate implicitly, requiring listeners to read between the lines), developing a sense of trust (Brazilians do it over long lunches), and decision-making (Germans rely on consensus, Americans on one decider). In each area, the author provides a “culture map scale” that positions behaviors in more than 20 countries along a continuum, allowing readers to anticipate the preferences of individuals from a particular country: Do they like direct or indirect negative feedback? Are they rigid or flexible regarding deadlines? Do they favor verbal or written commitments? And so on. Meyer discusses managers who have faced perplexing situations, such as knowledgeable team members who fail to speak up in meetings or Indians who offer a puzzling half-shake, half-nod of the head. Cultural differences—not personality quirks—are the motivating factors behind many behavioral styles. Depending on our cultures, we understand the world in a particular way, find certain arguments persuasive or lacking merit, and consider some ways of making decisions or measuring time natural and others quite strange.
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.Pub Date: May 27, 2014
ISBN: 978-1-61039-250-1
Page Count: 288
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: April 15, 2014
Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 2014
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