Interesting thought experiments that would have been made more interesting with a more vigorous use of actual dollars and...

OUTRAGEOUS FORTUNES

THE TWELVE SURPRISING TRENDS THAT WILL RESHAPE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Economic prophesying by a consultant who makes no claim to being “the economic Nostradamus.”

Altman opens by examining the business of economic forecasting, an art and science that could use a few Nostradamuses, but that is hampered by uncertainty—not least the experimental bias by which “predictions themselves may affect the future.” This, writes the author, is often the whole point of forecasting, warning of looming dangers and disasters that might sink an economy. He takes a longer view, however, and whether it can keep the ship from sinking we will not know for decades. One potential source of comfort for America-firsters is the roundabout view that China may well become an ever more important economic power, particularly if its government loosens controls on the economy to encourage foreign investment. However, “China is likely to fall short, both in its business practices and in the role of its government,” in the realm of technological innovation and implementation, which may be a more important determinant of economic strength. Such a forecast is debatable, of course, notably given the demographic pressures that are upon the West, with declining populations and lumbering social-welfare networks that will encourage workers to seek greener pastures (in Europe, writes Altman, in countries that are “endowed with essentially Anglo-Saxon or Scandinavian legal traditions”). The author ventures into such politically thorny areas as illegal immigration (“frequently an economic necessity”) and the current backlash against capitalism in many developing areas (which probably will not last). Meanwhile, he predicts, rich countries will become cleaner and richer and poor countries dirtier and poorer—reason enough to want to live in rich countries.

Interesting thought experiments that would have been made more interesting with a more vigorous use of actual dollars and cents (and yuan and euros). As to whether Altman is right, check back in half a century.

Pub Date: Jan. 4, 2011

ISBN: 978-0-8050-9102-1

Page Count: 272

Publisher: Times/Henry Holt

Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2010

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Oct. 1, 2010

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Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...

THINKING, FAST AND SLOW

A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.

The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.

Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.

Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011

ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1

Page Count: 512

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Review Posted Online: Sept. 4, 2011

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011

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Occasionally wonky but overall a good case for how the dismal science can make the world less—well, dismal.

GOOD ECONOMICS FOR HARD TIMES

“Quality of life means more than just consumption”: Two MIT economists urge that a smarter, more politically aware economics be brought to bear on social issues.

It’s no secret, write Banerjee and Duflo (co-authors: Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way To Fight Global Poverty, 2011), that “we seem to have fallen on hard times.” Immigration, trade, inequality, and taxation problems present themselves daily, and they seem to be intractable. Economics can be put to use in figuring out these big-issue questions. Data can be adduced, for example, to answer the question of whether immigration tends to suppress wages. The answer: “There is no evidence low-skilled migration to rich countries drives wage and employment down for the natives.” In fact, it opens up opportunities for those natives by freeing them to look for better work. The problem becomes thornier when it comes to the matter of free trade; as the authors observe, “left-behind people live in left-behind places,” which explains why regional poverty descended on Appalachia when so many manufacturing jobs left for China in the age of globalism, leaving behind not just left-behind people but also people ripe for exploitation by nationalist politicians. The authors add, interestingly, that the same thing occurred in parts of Germany, Spain, and Norway that fell victim to the “China shock.” In what they call a “slightly technical aside,” they build a case for addressing trade issues not with trade wars but with consumption taxes: “It makes no sense to ask agricultural workers to lose their jobs just so steelworkers can keep theirs, which is what tariffs accomplish.” Policymakers might want to consider such counsel, especially when it is coupled with the observation that free trade benefits workers in poor countries but punishes workers in rich ones.

Occasionally wonky but overall a good case for how the dismal science can make the world less—well, dismal.

Pub Date: Nov. 12, 2019

ISBN: 978-1-61039-950-0

Page Count: 432

Publisher: PublicAffairs

Review Posted Online: Aug. 29, 2019

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2019

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