An eye-opening account of an irrational mistake with broad ramifications.
A panoramic study focuses on survivor bias, a pervasive failure of reason that deeply distorts people’s views of the world.
According to Lockwood, survivor bias—a “cognitive failure” that involves a myopic overemphasis on success to the relative exclusion of failure—encourages all kinds of inferential missteps. “We are misled because we focus on the winners, the successes, and the living and lose sight of those who have lost, the failures, and the dead. By failing to adjust for survivor bias, we reach the wrong conclusions,” the author asserts. Psychologically, the tendency toward survivor bias results from an excess of optimism, the inclination to “attribute success to skill rather than luck,” to believe in the power of expert effort over the vagaries of chance. Lockwood supplies a sweeping account of the expressions and effects of the bias, ranging from the pharmaceutical and financial industries to war. For example, drug companies routinely oversell the efficacy of their products by excluding contradictory data, just as hedge funds overstate their performances by neglecting to mention their numerous failures. Moreover, survivor bias “warps our view of the past”—this explains why the horrors committed by Hitler’s Germany are so well documented in comparison to those by Mao’s China. The author’s account is impressively comprehensive, though the wide-ranging scope of the study doubles as a vice since he’s committed to assessing an array of topics beyond his expertise. For example, his discussion of President Harry S. Truman’s decision to drop two atomic bombs on Japan is historically superficial and unconvincing. Nevertheless, Lockwood sets out to provide an accessible introduction to survivor bias, one shorn of academic jargon and instead reliant on “concrete, real-world examples,” and in this he roundly succeeds. Further, he makes a compelling case for the ubiquity of the error, one that has far-reaching consequences, causing both sloppy reasoning and the opportunistic exploitation of individuals and groups.
An eye-opening account of an irrational mistake with broad ramifications.Pub Date: Oct. 19, 2021
ISBN: 978-1-62634-880-6
Page Count: 296
Publisher: Greenleaf Book Group Press
Review Posted Online: Sept. 9, 2021
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Oct. 15, 2021
Review Program: Kirkus Indie
BOOK REVIEW
BOOK REVIEW
A short, smart analysis of perhaps the most famous passage in American history reveals its potency and unfulfilled promise.
Words that made a nation.
Isaacson is known for expansive biographies of great thinkers (and Elon Musk), but here he pens a succinct, stimulating commentary on the Founding Fathers’ ode to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.” His close reading of the Declaration of Independence’s second sentence, published to mark the 250th anniversary of the document’s adoption, doesn’t downplay its “moral contradiction.” Thomas Jefferson enslaved hundreds of people yet called slavery “a cruel war against human nature” in his first draft of the Declaration. All but 15 of the document’s 56 signers owned enslaved people. While the sentence in question asserted “all men are created equal” and possess “unalienable rights,” the Founders “consciously and intentionally” excluded women, Native Americans, and enslaved people. And yet the sentence is powerful, Isaacson writes, because it names a young nation’s “aspirations.” He mounts a solid defense of what ought to be shared goals, among them economic fairness, “moral compassion,” and a willingness to compromise. “Democracy depends on this,” he writes. Isaacson is excellent when explaining how Enlightenment intellectuals abroad influenced the founders. Benjamin Franklin, one of the Declaration’s “five-person drafting committee,” stayed in David Hume’s home for a month in the early 1770s, “discussing ideas of natural rights” with the Scottish philosopher. Also strong is Isaacson’s discussion of the “edits and tweaks” made to Jefferson’s draft. As recommended by Franklin and others, the changes were substantial, leaving Jefferson “distraught.” Franklin, who emerges as the book’s hero, helped establish municipal services, founded a library, and encouraged religious diversity—the kind of civic-mindedness that we could use more of today, Isaacson reminds us.
A short, smart analysis of perhaps the most famous passage in American history reveals its potency and unfulfilled promise.Pub Date: Nov. 18, 2025
ISBN: 9781982181314
Page Count: 80
Publisher: Simon & Schuster
Review Posted Online: Aug. 29, 2025
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Oct. 1, 2025
BOOK REVIEW
BOOK REVIEW
BOOK REVIEW
SEEN & HEARD
A moving meditation on mortality by a gifted writer whose dual perspectives of physician and patient provide a singular...
A neurosurgeon with a passion for literature tragically finds his perfect subject after his diagnosis of terminal lung cancer.
Writing isn’t brain surgery, but it’s rare when someone adept at the latter is also so accomplished at the former. Searching for meaning and purpose in his life, Kalanithi pursued a doctorate in literature and had felt certain that he wouldn’t enter the field of medicine, in which his father and other members of his family excelled. “But I couldn’t let go of the question,” he writes, after realizing that his goals “didn’t quite fit in an English department.” “Where did biology, morality, literature and philosophy intersect?” So he decided to set aside his doctoral dissertation and belatedly prepare for medical school, which “would allow me a chance to find answers that are not in books, to find a different sort of sublime, to forge relationships with the suffering, and to keep following the question of what makes human life meaningful, even in the face of death and decay.” The author’s empathy undoubtedly made him an exceptional doctor, and the precision of his prose—as well as the moral purpose underscoring it—suggests that he could have written a good book on any subject he chose. Part of what makes this book so essential is the fact that it was written under a death sentence following the diagnosis that upended his life, just as he was preparing to end his residency and attract offers at the top of his profession. Kalanithi learned he might have 10 years to live or perhaps five. Should he return to neurosurgery (he could and did), or should he write (he also did)? Should he and his wife have a baby? They did, eight months before he died, which was less than two years after the original diagnosis. “The fact of death is unsettling,” he understates. “Yet there is no other way to live.”
A moving meditation on mortality by a gifted writer whose dual perspectives of physician and patient provide a singular clarity.Pub Date: Jan. 19, 2016
ISBN: 978-0-8129-8840-6
Page Count: 248
Publisher: Random House
Review Posted Online: Sept. 29, 2015
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Oct. 15, 2015
PERSPECTIVES
© Copyright 2025 Kirkus Media LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Follow
Popular in this Genre
We can’t wait for you to join Kirkus!
It’s free and takes less than 10 seconds!
Already have an account? Log in.
OR
Sign in with GoogleTrouble signing in? Retrieve credentials.
Welcome Back!
OR
Sign in with GoogleTrouble signing in? Retrieve credentials.
