A valuable guide for individuals and policymakers who want to act when they see the lights of an oncoming train.

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THE GRAY RHINO

HOW TO RECOGNIZE AND ACT ON THE OBVIOUS DANGERS WE IGNORE

An analysis of “highly obvious but ignored threats”—from failing infrastructure to financial crises to climate change—and what can be done to prevent disastrous outcomes.

“Of all the tricks that human nature plays on us, inertia is one of the most powerful forces preventing us from getting out of the way of a known challenge,” writes policy analyst Wucker (Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right, 2006, etc.), a former vice president at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Drawing on interviews and research in behavioral economics, she details the “willful collective failure” to act on warning signs that preceded the 2008 financial crisis, the Enron debacle, the collapse of a Minneapolis bridge in 2007, and other events. She calls these highly probable, high-impact threats “Gray Rhinos,” as opposed to the rare, unpredictable catastrophes that author Nassim Nicholas Taleb dubbed “Black Swans” in his popular 2007 book, The Black Swan. Throughout her book, Wucker describes the many reasons people fail to respond to obvious dangers—e.g., denial, avoidance, procrastination, and calculated self-interest. Many reasons are emotional or irrational. Others are encouraged by the imperatives of political and financial systems, which seek short-term results or profits rather than investing in long-term solutions. Wucker makes a strong case, but she is often long-winded and perhaps overly optimistic that an awareness of the quirks of human nature shaping our decisions can spur decision-makers to respond effectively to obvious threats. However, she provides solid examples of government action on such gray rhinos as water shortages and the need to plan for future disasters in the wake of floods. She urges readers to avoid the panic stage of an impending threat by “quickly moving from recognition to diagnosis to action.”

A valuable guide for individuals and policymakers who want to act when they see the lights of an oncoming train. 

Pub Date: April 5, 2016

ISBN: 978-1-250-05382-4

Page Count: 304

Publisher: St. Martin's

Review Posted Online: Feb. 3, 2016

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Feb. 15, 2016

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A declaration worth hearing out in a time of growing inequality—and indignity.

ECONOMIC DIGNITY

Noted number cruncher Sperling delivers an economist’s rejoinder to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

Former director of the National Economic Council in the administrations of Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, the author has long taken a view of the dismal science that takes economic justice fully into account. Alongside all the metrics and estimates and reckonings of GDP, inflation, and the supply curve, he holds the great goal of economic policy to be the advancement of human dignity, a concept intangible enough to chase the econometricians away. Growth, the sacred mantra of most economic policy, “should never be considered an appropriate ultimate end goal” for it, he counsels. Though 4% is the magic number for annual growth to be considered healthy, it is healthy only if everyone is getting the benefits and not just the ultrawealthy who are making away with the spoils today. Defining dignity, admits Sperling, can be a kind of “I know it when I see it” problem, but it does not exist where people are a paycheck away from homelessness; the fact, however, that people widely share a view of indignity suggests the “intuitive universality” of its opposite. That said, the author identifies three qualifications, one of them the “ability to meaningfully participate in the economy with respect, not domination and humiliation.” Though these latter terms are also essentially unquantifiable, Sperling holds that this respect—lack of abuse, in another phrasing—can be obtained through a tight labor market and monetary and fiscal policy that pushes for full employment. In other words, where management needs to come looking for workers, workers are likely to be better treated than when the opposite holds. In still other words, writes the author, dignity is in part a function of “ ‘take this job and shove it’ power,” which is a power worth fighting for.

A declaration worth hearing out in a time of growing inequality—and indignity.

Pub Date: May 5, 2020

ISBN: 978-1-9848-7987-5

Page Count: 384

Publisher: Penguin Press

Review Posted Online: Feb. 26, 2020

Kirkus Reviews Issue: March 15, 2020

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No one’s mind will be changed by Karl’s book, but it’s a valuable report from the scene of an ongoing train wreck.

FRONT ROW AT THE TRUMP SHOW

The chief White House and Washington correspondent for ABC provides a ringside seat to a disaster-ridden Oval Office.

It is Karl to whom we owe the current popularity of a learned Latin term. Questioning chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, he followed up a perhaps inadvertently honest response on the matter of Ukrainian intervention in the electoral campaign by saying, “What you just described is a quid pro quo.” Mulvaney’s reply: “Get over it.” Karl, who has been covering Trump for decades and knows which buttons to push and which to avoid, is not inclined to get over it: He rightly points out that a reporter today “faces a president who seems to have no appreciation or understanding of the First Amendment and the role of a free press in American democracy.” Yet even against a bellicose, untruthful leader, he adds, the press “is not the opposition party.” The author, who keeps his eye on the subject and not in the mirror, writes of Trump’s ability to stage situations, as when he once called Trump out, at an event, for misrepresenting poll results and Trump waited until the camera was off before exploding, “Fucking nasty guy!”—then finished up the interview as if nothing had happened. Trump and his inner circle are also, by Karl’s account, masters of timing, matching negative news such as the revelation that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election with distractions away from Trump—in this case, by pushing hard on the WikiLeaks emails from the Democratic campaign, news of which arrived at the same time. That isn’t to say that they manage people or the nation well; one of the more damning stories in a book full of them concerns former Homeland Security head Kirstjen Nielsen, cut off at the knees even while trying to do Trump’s bidding.

No one’s mind will be changed by Karl’s book, but it’s a valuable report from the scene of an ongoing train wreck.

Pub Date: March 31, 2020

ISBN: 978-1-5247-4562-2

Page Count: 368

Publisher: Dutton

Review Posted Online: Dec. 22, 2019

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Jan. 15, 2020

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