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THE PRIMACY OF DOUBT

FROM QUANTUM PHYSICS TO CLIMATE CHANGE, HOW THE SCIENCE OF UNCERTAINTY CAN HELP US UNDERSTAND OUR CHAOTIC WORLD

Read Gleick first and then turn to this informative, ingenious book.

An exploration of the amorphous concept of uncertainty, “an essential part of the human condition.”

Uncertainty is another name for chaos, a fascinating concept largely unknown until the 1950s. Palmer, a professor of physics at Oxford, works hard to explain it to lay readers. He begins with Newton’s law of gravity, which can predict the Earth-sun orbit precisely into the distant future but only works with two gravitating bodies. After three centuries of searching for a formula to predict the positions of three or more, French physicist Henri Poincare proved that “no formula exists.” Planetary orbits are “chaotic.” Like weather or stock prices, “the system appears reasonably predictable until, out of the blue, it behaves unpredictably”—which means that it’s not impossible that the Earth will one day wander out of its orbit. One of Palmer’s main characters is meteorologist and mathematician Edward Lorenz (1917-2008). Before Lorenz, scientists believed that if you had enough accurate information about current conditions (temperature, wind speed, humidity), you could feed the details into a powerful computer and predict weather far into the future. Lorenz proved that this was impossible; tiny changes in initial conditions can blow up into huge errors. Chaos theory doesn’t make prediction impossible, only erratic over the short term. Weather forecasts have grown more accurate, but they’re now expressed in percentages. Palmer believes that embracing uncertainty might explain phenomena considered hopelessly complex, and he illustrates his points with densely argued chapters on financial crashes, war, climate change, pandemics, and brain function. The author is a fluid writer, but the sections on complicated areas such as fractal geometry and quantum uncertainty may overwhelm readers unfamiliar with college physics and calculus. They should prepare by reading James Gleick’s Chaos, still in print after 35 years—and which Palmer calls “masterful.”

Read Gleick first and then turn to this informative, ingenious book.

Pub Date: Oct. 18, 2022

ISBN: 978-1-5416-1970-8

Page Count: 320

Publisher: N/A

Review Posted Online: Aug. 22, 2022

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2022

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POVERTY, BY AMERICA

A clearly delineated guide to finally eradicate poverty in America.

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A thoughtful program for eradicating poverty from the Pulitzer Prize–winning author of Evicted.

“America’s poverty is not for lack of resources,” writes Desmond. “We lack something else.” That something else is compassion, in part, but it’s also the lack of a social system that insists that everyone pull their weight—and that includes the corporations and wealthy individuals who, the IRS estimates, get away without paying upward of $1 trillion per year. Desmond, who grew up in modest circumstances and suffered poverty in young adulthood, points to the deleterious effects of being poor—among countless others, the precarity of health care and housing (with no meaningful controls on rent), lack of transportation, the constant threat of losing one’s job due to illness, and the need to care for dependent children. It does not help, Desmond adds, that so few working people are represented by unions or that Black Americans, even those who have followed the “three rules” (graduate from high school, get a full-time job, wait until marriage to have children), are far likelier to be poor than their White compatriots. Furthermore, so many full-time jobs are being recast as contracted, fire-at-will gigs, “not a break from the norm as much as an extension of it, a continuation of corporations finding new ways to limit their obligations to workers.” By Desmond’s reckoning, besides amending these conditions, it would not take a miracle to eliminate poverty: about $177 billion, which would help end hunger and homelessness and “make immense headway in driving down the many agonizing correlates of poverty, like violence, sickness, and despair.” These are matters requiring systemic reform, which will in turn require Americans to elect officials who will enact that reform. And all of us, the author urges, must become “poverty abolitionists…refusing to live as unwitting enemies of the poor.” Fortune 500 CEOs won’t like Desmond’s message for rewriting the social contract—which is precisely the point.

A clearly delineated guide to finally eradicate poverty in America.

Pub Date: March 21, 2023

ISBN: 9780593239919

Page Count: 288

Publisher: Crown

Review Posted Online: Nov. 30, 2022

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Jan. 1, 2023

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ELON MUSK

Alternately admiring and critical, unvarnished, and a closely detailed account of a troubled innovator.

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A warts-and-all portrait of the famed techno-entrepreneur—and the warts are nearly beyond counting.

To call Elon Musk (b. 1971) “mercurial” is to undervalue the term; to call him a genius is incorrect. Instead, Musk has a gift for leveraging the genius of others in order to make things work. When they don’t, writes eminent biographer Isaacson, it’s because the notoriously headstrong Musk is so sure of himself that he charges ahead against the advice of others: “He does not like to share power.” In this sharp-edged biography, the author likens Musk to an earlier biographical subject, Steve Jobs. Given Musk’s recent political turn, born of the me-first libertarianism of the very rich, however, Henry Ford also comes to mind. What emerges clearly is that Musk, who may or may not have Asperger’s syndrome (“Empathy did not come naturally”), has nurtured several obsessions for years, apart from a passion for the letter X as both a brand and personal name. He firmly believes that “all requirements should be treated as recommendations”; that it is his destiny to make humankind a multi-planetary civilization through innovations in space travel; that government is generally an impediment and that “the thought police are gaining power”; and that “a maniacal sense of urgency” should guide his businesses. That need for speed has led to undeniable successes in beating schedules and competitors, but it has also wrought disaster: One of the most telling anecdotes in the book concerns Musk’s “demon mode” order to relocate thousands of Twitter servers from Sacramento to Portland at breakneck speed, which trashed big parts of the system for months. To judge by Isaacson’s account, that may have been by design, for Musk’s idea of creative destruction seems to mean mostly chaos.

Alternately admiring and critical, unvarnished, and a closely detailed account of a troubled innovator.

Pub Date: Sept. 12, 2023

ISBN: 9781982181284

Page Count: 688

Publisher: Simon & Schuster

Review Posted Online: Sept. 12, 2023

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Oct. 15, 2023

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