With intellectual heft and plenty of actionable items, this is a smart prescription for better thinking.
A sometimes repetitive but generally useful manual on introducing cost-benefit analysis to decision-making.
“We need an effective intellectual framework for thinking about thinking—an approach to the world that acknowledges complexity and uncertainty but can nonetheless help us make the best possible decisions,” writes Rubin, a former Treasury secretary and Goldman Sachs executive. There’s a lot packed into that suggestion, for acknowledging that complexity and uncertainty involves introducing risk analysis into decisions of import, which entails probabilistic thinking (What are the chances this is going to fail?), which involves the old economists’ trick of cost-benefit analysis, which circles back to risk. One does all this, Rubin counsels, by means of a yellow legal pad, a metaphor for any means of listing possible outcomes for reckoning honestly with key questions: “How do you make judgments about the probabilities? How do you consider trade-offs when priorities conflict? And how do you deal with potential scenarios that can’t be expressed in numerical terms?” Rubin is a qualitative thinker, but he admits that some qualitative assessment boils down simply to gut reactions. Though he belabors certain points, he makes subtle arguments about the dangers of, for instance, assuming that low risk means no risk and the desirability of leaders who care less about whether they’re popular than whether they make their best effort to get things right. In that regard, he branches out to leadership style, notably Bill Clinton’s, who was inclined to make decisions while taking a wide range of opinions that weren’t necessarily weighted toward the seniority of the person offering them. That approach relies on “embracing human complexity: recognizing and engaging with the inherent strengths, weaknesses, and motivations of individuals, and then working to give them the best chance to succeed.” And never skip the important step of asking “foundational questions.”
With intellectual heft and plenty of actionable items, this is a smart prescription for better thinking.Pub Date: May 16, 2023
ISBN: 9780593491393
Page Count: 336
Publisher: Penguin Press
Review Posted Online: March 10, 2023
Kirkus Reviews Issue: April 1, 2023
Cogent, well-timed ideas for meeting today’s biggest challenges.
Helping liberals get out of their own way.
Klein, a New York Times columnist, and Thompson, an Atlantic staffer, lean to the left, but they aren’t interrogating the usual suspects. Aware that many conservatives have no interest in their opinions, the authors target their own side’s “pathologies.” Why do red states greenlight the kind of renewable energy projects that often languish in blue states? Why does liberal California have the nation’s most severe homelessness and housing affordability crises? One big reason: Liberal leadership has ensnared itself in a web of well-intentioned yet often onerous “goals, standards, and rules.” This “procedural kludge,” partially shaped by lawyers who pioneered a “democracy by lawsuit” strategy in the 1960s, threatens to stymie key breakthroughs. Consider the anti-pollution laws passed after World War II. In the decades since, homeowners’ groups in liberal locales have cited such statutes in lawsuits meant to stop new affordable housing. Today, these laws “block the clean energy projects” required to tackle climate change. Nuclear energy is “inarguably safer” than the fossil fuel variety, but because Washington doesn’t always “properly weigh risk,” it almost never builds new reactors. Meanwhile, technologies that may cure disease or slash the carbon footprint of cement production benefit from government support, but too often the grant process “rewards caution and punishes outsider thinking.” The authors call this style of governing “everything-bagel liberalism,” so named because of its many government mandates. Instead, they envision “a politics of abundance” that would remake travel, work, and health. This won’t happen without “changing the processes that make building and inventing so hard.” It’s time, then, to scrutinize everything from municipal zoning regulations to the paperwork requirements for scientists getting federal funding. The authors’ debut as a duo is very smart and eminently useful.
Cogent, well-timed ideas for meeting today’s biggest challenges.Pub Date: March 18, 2025
ISBN: 9781668023488
Page Count: 320
Publisher: Avid Reader Press
Review Posted Online: Jan. 16, 2025
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Feb. 15, 2025
BOOK REVIEW
PERSPECTIVES
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
BOOK REVIEW
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